irrational statistics

I am a reasonably intelligent girl. I understand how statistics work. Really, I do. I understand that when my doctor says the success rates for women my age last year were 65%, I understand that given 100 cycles, about 65 of those cycles ended up in continuing pregnancies and/or babies.

I understand that some women my age had to try more than once. I understand that they can have 10 failures in a row, then 20 successes to yield the same results. I understand that more than that 65% got pregnant and then miscarried. I get that there can appear to be clusters of success and failure.

I understand that 65% is nothing to scoff at. I understand that 65% is the best we can do. No number of IUIs or amount of sex can ever equal that 65%. I know that many of you reading don’t get quoted that 65%.

I also understood that our chances of getting pregnant while trying naturally were 85% over the course of a year. I understood when my ob/gyn and initally my RE didn’t think there was any reason we shouldn’t be able to get pregnant on our own.

So where does the irrational thinking come in? That everytime I hear a pregnancy announcement, I think… maybe that was my shot. That was my chance. It feels as though it’s worked that way since the day we began trying.

Someone else always gets pregnant, not me.

*******************************************************************
Foot update – doctor thinks it’s tendonitis. He gave me a steroid shot into the tendon – which seems to be helping. He said I could run by Tuesday; I’m not so sure I believe him right now.

Protocol update – I don’t have one yet. I’m really hoping I hear soon.

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~ by Larisa on February 19, 2006.

4 Responses to “irrational statistics”

  1. Oh we’re all insane on the statistics. I don’t feel so much as if they took my shot, more just horrible jealousy. I know you don’t need to hear this, but boy does 65% sound good to me!

  2. Oh we’re all insane on the statistics. I don’t feel so much as if they took my shot, more just horrible jealousy. I know you don’t need to hear this, but boy does 65% sound good to me!

  3. I completely get it. My RE quoted me 60% last round, yet I didn’t even make it to transfer. I’ve been trying to teach myself that statistics don’t matter – ‘cuz all I want is my ONE cycle to work. So I figure it’s probably best to avoid thinking about both probabilities and about symptoms – ‘cuz neither are a true indication of anything. Hope the tendonitis gets better quick!

  4. The statistics don’t mean anything at all to me. I know how you feel. It’s frustrating to keep falling in the unlucky part of the percentages.

    I know how you feel. It’s loopy, but I get it. Other people do fall pregnant, and you will be one of them. At least I won’t be taking your shot from you.

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